Republicans have dominated Florida Democrats for nearly 30 years, where currently only one statewide elected post is occupied by a Democrat: Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried. With Fried all but officially running against Governor Ron DeSantis and U.S. Rep. Val Demings (D-FL-10) challenging Sen. Marco Rubio for his Senate seat in 2022, Florida Democrats are having to rearrange who is going to be running for open positions and the potential political losses those candidates could face.
If Fried continues on her current trajectory for a likely gubernatorial bid, Democrats might lose the only statewide post they have. Fried won in 2018, weeks after Hurricane Michael devastated the agriculture-rich areas of the Florida Panhandle, which saw diminished Republican Panhandle voter turnout compared to the rest of the state. Fried won the race narrowly by approximately 6,000 votes.
Rumors have already swirled around Florida Senate President Wilton Simpson (R-10), a Trilby native and egg farmer, running for Fried’s open seat as agriculture commissioner. Former President Donald J. Trump has already endorsed Simpson for the post, should he decide to run.
Demings’ decision to run for Rubio’s seat, rather than challenge DeSantis, has caused some reassessment among potential Democratic candidates, as well. Some speculated whether U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL-7) would drop out with Demings in the race, but she has signaled she will stay in the race and compete with Demings in the Democratic primary.
Murphy is Co-Chair of the House Blue Dog Coalition comprised of centrist and some conservative Democrats, which some say is crossover appeal to moderate Republicans or No-Party-Affiliated (NPA) voters. Being an escapee from communist Vietnam as a child, her Spanish-speaking skills could be appealing to South Florida’s Hispanic communities, many of whom are descended from Cuban political refugees.
“Stephanie Murphy has never lost a race, despite representing one of the most competitive seats in the country,” said Lauren Calmet, a spokesperson for Murphy. “She is an effective legislator, a proven fundraiser, and exactly the type of person who can beat Marco Rubio. Should she decide to run for the US Senate, she will win.”
Orlando-area state attorney Aramis Ayala, a progressive backed by George Soros, has been eyeing the seat potentially vacated by Demings.
Florida’s 10th Congressional District, which Demings would leave, is a seat in the west Orlando area that went to President Joe Biden in 2020 with 62 percent of the vote.
“I’ve had some very productive discussions with leaders in our community, around the state, and nationally about the best way to serve,” she said in a Wednesday statement. “There will be a strong need for a progressive champion who can build on the work Congresswoman Demings has done in Congress and advocate for Florida’s 10th District.”
Ayala became known by her decision to stop pursuing the death penalty in criminal cases. Then-Governor Rick Scott subsequently moved cases from her office to another prosecutor, which Ayala fought in court, but the Supreme Court of Florida sided with Scott.
During the next legislative session, Florida Republicans will also be tasked with re-districting Florida’s congressional districts after the 2020 Census. The census revealed Florida will be gaining one additional seat in Congress. Democrats are concerned that some districts will be re-drawn to benefit Republicans in the 2022 election.
Florida will most likely remain a closely divided state and Democrats remain optimistic. But Florida has now turned largely red after two South Florida congressional seats flipped to Republicans in 2020 and former President Trump carried the state by a wider margin in 2020 than in 2016.
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Grant Holcomb is a reporter at the Florida Capital Star and the Star News Network. Follow Grant on Twitter and direct message tips.
Photo “Florida State Capitol” by DXR CC 4.0.
